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IBIS World - Sector Overviews – Wholesale Investor

16 May 2009

Some industries will thrive in the current economic climate – but they are a small minority. Only 4% of the 479 Australian industries IBISWorld analyses will benefit from these conditions, while the downturn spells disaster for another 5%. The impact will be minimal in 33% of industries, while the remaining 58% are likely to be hurt, but not catastrophically. There are, however, some sectors that may present an opportunity for private equity firms despite the turmoil, according to IBISWorld's latest Macroeconomic Briefing paper:

Resources

The Resource Boom May Not be Dead, Just Resting

After a number of years of historically high growth, the resources industry in Australia has endured a stressful 2008-09. However, the worst may be yet to come. Despite dramatic falls in the market prices for key commodities, revenue was protected to some extent by large annual supply contracts that were signed shortly before prices nose-dived. Many of these contracts expire between April and June 2009, creating a high stakes period of negotiation between miners and their customers.

As a result of uncertain demand levels in the short and medium term, Australian resource companies are looking at ways to reduce their capacity. In April, Rio Tinto announced that its Alcan subsidiary would cut back an expansion project and reduce bauxite production. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto is trying to get $US19.5 billion in capital from Chinalco to stabilise its financial position. The need for resource companies to access capital is a key driver of a great deal of mooted M&A activity in recent months.

Finance

The Australian finance and insurance sector has put on a credible performance compared with its overseas peers

The Australian finance and insurance sector has hardly been immune to the upheaval gripping global financial markets. A sharemarket slump, tight credit markets, underperforming investment funds and nervous investors have all created challenges. However, compared to the performance of many international peers, the Australian financial sector is an example of resistance to recession.

This is predominantly due to the resilience of Australian banks. Having avoided exposure to the subprime linked debt products that have lost US and European banks billions of dollars, they have seen only a small drop in their profitability to date.

The industry is undergoing consolidation, as smaller firms struggle to attract investors and capital, and firms are now looking for an improvement in US financial markets over 2009 to provide the impetus for a return to growth in 2009-10.

Health

Healthcare is perhaps the only recession proof sector.

Irrespective of economic conditions, Australians will continue to get sick – in fact, they may get sicker, as falling incomes will make healthy living a less attractive expense, while an older population is more susceptible to ill-health. While falling consumer sentiment and income may lead to a drop in health insurance members, Australia’s hospitals will remain in demand.

The poor economic climate will have one clear effect – a slowdown in the growth of more ‘discretionary’ forms of medicine. Most elective surgeries will face challenges, as they are delayed until late-2010, but urgent surgery remains essential irrespective of poor economic growth.

Healthcare is increasingly becoming privatized, as the stability inherent in the sector appeals to businesses looking to expand into new sectors, and few sectors are more resilient than healthcare.

IT & Telecommunications

Demand for internet services will remain robust as they have become an essential part of daily life for consumers and businesses

Despite community and business reliance on telecommunications, telco providers will find it challenging to convince clients to move to pricier plans in 2009-10, and this will place pressure on pricing, while external investment is likely to fall in the short-term.

The major winners in this environment will be the mobile network operators. These companies will benefit from the migration of consumers to wireless as they rationalise their services. Also, wireless telcos will increasingly moving into the ISP market, as wireless network speeds improve rapidly. Resellers will struggle as price erosion will put margins under additional pressure, which may see these operators become acquisition targets.

The Government’s $43-billion fibre-to-the-home network is set to begin in July. Much of the impact of the investment will be felt after the recession has passed, but it undoubtedly means that telecommunications is an area of potentially massive growth beyond 2009-10.

Edward Butler is a Senior Industry Analyst for IBISWorld, Australia’s richest source of business information and analysis. IBISWorld offers reports on Australia’s leading industries, top performing companies and key business indicators.

Website: www.ibisworld.com.au

IBISWorld is Australia’s richest source of business information and analysis. Already servicing Australia’s leading companies, reports from IBISWorld ensure business decisions can be based on sound industry knowledge now - and into the future. To help you get in the KNOW, IBISWorld is giving you the opportunity to download its latest instalment of its 'must-read' macro-economic briefing, Economic Downturn: Who will thrive in 2009? Visit www.ibisworld.com.au/freebriefing

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