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The Aussie Economy - Update

Now more than ever, a question I have been continually asked by both offshore and onshore investors and managers alike is “is the Australian Economy Improving?”

31 March 2009

By Matthew Collett - CEO Presidium Capital

Now more than ever, a question I have been continually asked by both offshore and onshore investors and managers alike is “is the Australian Economy Improving?”

Aaah, The 42 Billion Dollar question. Well that’s the size of the economic stimulus package the Australian Government approved back on the 12^th of February to spend over the next 2 years.

Surely this must be a rhetorical question?? Who knows where we are or where we are heading?? There’s so much uncertainty out there!!… or is there.

To give an incite to ‘how the Australian Economy is coping and where it is heading’ we firstly need to look at the worlds largest economy, the USA.

I have recently returned from a business trip to Washington and New York which are two very different Cities and two different very different cultures.

One is an excited, thriving city, buzzing on the news of a $700 Billion stimulus package and the expectations of how this will boost the countries morale and also how it will lift the economy and the sentiment of the US people and businesses. The other is New York.

There is no doubt that Washington is showing signs of the thriving nature that once gripped the associates and business types of NYC and its Wall Street moguls. But don’t let me mislead you. New York is beginning to hold steady its major unrest. I met with many hedge funds, private equity funds, bankers and businessmen and although they probably didn’t realize it, they were showing signs of optimism.

I say it in that manner, as I don’t think the New Yorkers realise that they are perhaps seeing the bottom of a tragic cycle. You have the same situation when a talented and enthusiastic child has lost his ethical way for a moment and has been caught out in a bad crowd and doing the wrong thing. He gets a good smack on the hand, grounded indefinitely and his pocket money is revoked. He is then told that he has to prove himself that he is a good boy to get all these privileges replenished.

After a while, if he has been continually tormented and put down to believe he is a no hoper and there is no future, then he will begin to think this is his destiny.

Untill he is grabbed and shaken and it is pointed out to him that he has the potential and gift to come out of his previous misfortunes then he will still believe he is a no hoper.

I see this analogy with NY. They have been caught in a bad crowd and there’s no point arguing that, they have been smacked on the hand, grounded indefinitely and their money has been revoked.

Although I don’t condone the actions of many bankers and money managers I do think we have to move on.

One strong feeling I got from my trip to the US was that the sentiment had begun to change. I believe they have seen the bottom of the cycle, and although we are not coming out of it in a hurry, there seems to be some optimism. Some people I met with had an improved sentiment compared to the last time I met with them 8 months ago but didn’t realise it untill I told them.

Let’s look at what’s going on in Washington which will affect NY, which will affect the world.

The Stimulus Package

U.S. President Barack Obama on Tuesday the 17^th of February signed into law a $787-billion US stimulus package his administration hopes will help lift the country's economy out of recession.

"I don't want to pretend that today marks the end of our economic troubles," Obama said before signing the legislation. "Nor does it constitute all of what we're going to have to do to turn our economy around. But today does mark the beginning of the end."

Battered by the subprime mortgage and credit crunch, the U.S. economy has been in recession since late 2007, shedding 3.6 million jobs in that time. In January alone, U.S. employers cut 598,000 positions — the biggest one-month drop since 1974.

The Act specifies that 37% of the package is to be devoted to tax cuts equaling $288 billion and $144 billion or 18% is allocated to state and local fiscal relief (more than 90% of the state aid is going to Medicaid and education). 45% or $357 billion is allocated to federal social programs and federal spending programs.

The following is a breakdown of where the money is to be spent.

Tax cuts

Total: $288 billion

Tax relief for individuals

Total: $237 billion

Tax relief for companies

Total: $51 billion

Healthcare

More than 11% of the total bill is allocated to help states with Medicaid

Total: $147.7 billion

Education

Total: $90.9 billion

Environment

Total: $7.2 billion

Aid to low income workers, unemployed and retirees (including job training)

Total: $82.5 billion

Infrastructure Investment

Total: $80.9 billion

Core investments (roads, bridges, railways, sewers, other transportation)

Total: $51.2 billion

Investment into government facilities and vehicle fleets

Total: $29.5 billion

Supplemental investments

Total: $15 billion

Energy

Total: $61.3 billion

Housing

Total: $12.7 billion

Scientific research

Total: $8.9 billion

Other

Total: $18.1 billion

The drive to re-regulate world finance is officially under way.

The Obama administration's has recently announced an aggressive plan for strict scrutiny of money managers and other freewheeling investors, part of the biggest expansion of financial restraints since the Great Depression.

US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has outlined a sweeping array of reforms aimed at containing the market excesses that helped produce the global financial crisis.

Appearing before a congressional committee in Washington, Mr Geithner said the US needed to target reckless risk-taking with "better, smarter, tougher" regulation.

He said the financial crisis had revealed "critical gaps" in existing regulation and "strong oversight" by government was needed for those institutions and markets that had the capacity to harm the entire financial system.

"To address this will require comprehensive reform, not modest repairs at the margin, but new rules of the game," Mr Geithner said. "The days when a major insurance company could bet the house on credit default swaps -- with no one watching and no credible backing to protect the company or taxpayers from losses -- must end."

The blueprint has four key elements: addressing systemic risk, protecting consumers and investors, closing critical gaps in regulatory framework and fostering international co-operation.

The centerpiece of the reform package is a proposal for a new "super" regulator to provide enhanced oversight of all systemically important firms -- be they banks, brokerage houses, other financial services firms, hedge funds or insurance companies.

He said the super regulator would also impose liquidity, counterparty and credit-risk management standards, stricter than those applying to other financial firms.

The administration's proposals include:

· Imposing tougher standards on financial institutions that are judged to be so big that their failure would threaten the entire system.

· Extending federal regulation for the first time to all trading in financial derivatives — exotic instruments such as credit default swaps that are blamed for much of the economic carnage.

· Requiring larger hedge funds and other private pools of capital, including private equity and venture capital funds, to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

· Creating a regulator to monitor the biggest institutions. Geithner did not say which agency should wield such authority, but the administration is expected to favor the Federal Reserve.

· Empowering the government to take over major nonbank financial firms such as insurers and hedge funds if deemed necessary.

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a member of the Senate Banking Committee, praised Geithner's proposal as a "good first outline." But he said it would probably require "some major consolidating and rearranging" of regulatory agencies. Four separate agencies now regulate banks, a system critics say produces overlapping lines of authority.

The proposal on credit default swaps and other derivatives would regulate the trading far more extensively. Credit default swaps are contracts to insure against the default of certain debt.

Larger hedge funds, private equity funds and venture capital funds above a certain level in assets would have to register with the SEC. Regulators would examine their books to determine if they should face greater scrutiny.

There is no doubt that between the Stimulus Packages and the suggested regulatory reforms that this has had a major effect on the US and somewhat Global economies.

Let’s look at the overall affect that this has had on the Global Markets and Economies.

ECONOMIES

Prices for 30-yr U.S. Treasury debt rise, traders hopes to profit from Fed's planned purchase of long-dated government securities.

QUOTES

 "It is too early to bet on a consumer renaissance, because consumers are still facing severe headwinds from declining employment and reduced wealth. But the worst appears to be behind us." - Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in

Lexington, Massachusetts.

 "Our future is inextricably linked to these financial institutions and theirs is to ours, and so it makes all the sense in the world that they come together and have this conversation." - Valerie Jarrett, a senior adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama.

 "The president opened up by talking about the importance of dealing with toxic assets and getting banks lending again. It's fair to say that they agreed on the need to update the framework of regulations." - White House spokesman Robert Gibbs.

 "Germany, as a member of the EU, has a massive interest in the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact, which as you know is not taken so seriously by some. If it is not taken seriously, I am telling you, the euro will have trouble one day in terms of its own credibility and stability." - German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck.

 "We've come a long way in a big hurry; it makes sense that we would take a little breather. It just looks like an unwinding of recent trends and probably some profit-taking." - Chip Hanlon, president of Delta Global Advisors in Huntington Beach,

A Quick Look at China

The economic crisis around the world has put China under the spotlight. The world’s third largest economy, who also holds nearly $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserve, has started to use its nearly $600 billion stimulus package to revive its economy, building highways and railroads, investing in education, and improving social welfare.

While banks in the U.S. are struggling to clean up their books, banks in China have made $156 billion new loans in February after lending $237 billion in January to support the 8% growth target. And the government’s action has produced some encouraging results: Retail sales have stabilized in the first two months and power output actually increased 5% in February.

So you could say that China is holding steady and could easily stabilize and be one of the first to lead us out of the recession.

Our Own Back Yard

Australian banks continue to report solid profits, haven’t accumulated large holdings of high-risk securities, and didn’t ease lending standards to the same extent as counterparts around the world, the central bank recently said.

“The Australian banking system is considerably better placed to weather the current challenges than many other systems around the world,” the Reserve Bank of Australia said in its half-yearly Financial Stability Review published in Sydney.

The nation’s five largest banks, led by Westpac Banking Corp., reported an annualized post-tax return on equity in the latest half year of 15 percent, the report said. Still, the slowing economy has led to an increase in charges for bad and doubtful debts to A$5.3 billion (US$3.7 billion) from A$1.4 billion a year earlier.

Problem loans have risen from “very low levels” and lending growth has also slowed recently, the Reserve Bank added.

The ratio of non-performing assets to total on-balance- sheets assets was about 1 percent in December, compared with 0.4 percent a year earlier, the central bank said. “This ratio is now marginally higher than that recorded in the 2001 downturn” and “well below” the 6 percent peak in the early 1990s, when the nation’s economy was last in a recession.

Housing loans that were 90 days or more in arrears accounted for 0.48 percent of outstanding loans in December, compared with 0.32 percent a year earlier.

“Looking ahead, the main downside risk to the performance of banks’ housing portfolios is from a rise in unemployment as the economy slows,” the report said.

Australia’s economy unexpectedly shrank 0.5 percent in the three months through December from the previous quarter, the first contraction in eight years, and the jobless rate rose in February to a four-year high of 5.2 percent as companies such as Macquarie Group Ltd. and BHP Billiton Ltd. cut full-time jobs.

Stimulus Package

On the 13^th of February, the Senate has passed the Government's $42 billion economic stimulus package.

The government said that the package of measures, to be released over two years, will help keep 90,000 Australians in jobs and give a boost to the economy of 0.5 per cent of GDP - aiming for overall economic growth of 1 per cent for 2008-09.

The majority has been allocated to education infrastructure and public and defense housing with $14.7 billion will be spent on schools infrastructure and $6.6 billion will be used to build and upgrade public and Defense Housing.

There are also temporary tax breaks for small businesses to buy new assets, $570 million for roads, and free ceiling insulation for more than 2 million homes.

The plan also includes cash payments of nearly $US600 for millions of families, farmers, students and single workers.

Such big spending will, however, contribute to Australia's budget going into deficit by $14 billion this year and $22 billion the next, while the government is also forecasting unemployment to rise to 7 per cent in 2010.

Interest Rates

To boost the economy, the Australian Central Bank led by Governor Glenn Stevens, has cut the benchmark lending rate by a record four percentage points since September to a 45-year low of 3.25 percent.

The cuts and government grants to first-time home buyers of as much as A$21,000 are unlikely to cause a U.S.-style subprime crisis, Anthony Richards, head of economic analysis at the Reserve Bank said.

“The past year and a half has seen lending standards tighten in Australia, with a significant shrinkage in the amount of lo-doc and non-confirming lending,”Richards told a housing conference. Such loans are often compared with U.S. subprime loans.

Reductions in borrowing costs “have helped to alleviate debt-servicing pressures,” the central bank said in the report.

At this point there is no real indication whether the reserve bank will continue to lower rates as Glen Stevens stated that:

“In Australia, demand has not weakened as much as in other countries and, on the basis of currently available information, the Australian economy has not experienced the sort of large contraction seen elsewhere.”

“The Australian financial system remains strong and the monetary policy transmission process is working to deliver large reductions in interest rates to end borrowers.”

“Nonetheless, economic conditions are clearly weak, and given the speed and scale of the global economic deterioration and its effect on confidence, weak conditions are likely to continue in the near term. Inflation is likely to decline over time.”

“On this basis, notwithstanding evident economic weakness at present, the Board judged that the stance of monetary policy was appropriate for the moment.”

Government Guarantee

Many businesses have taken a “more conservative approach to their finances, by paying down debt and raising equity,” the report said. “This is despite the business sector, as a whole, having entered the current period of financial turmoil with its balance sheet in good shape after a number of years of solid profit growth.”

Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September, Australia’s government in November provided a guarantee for wholesale funding for the nation’s banks.

“Since these arrangements have been in place, Australian banks have issued A$85 billion of long-term debt,” the report said. Of that, some A$81 billion was issued under the guarantee.

“This compares with just A$3.5 billion of term debt that was issued in the three months to November,” the report said.

The nation’s four largest banks raised a total of A$18 billion from shareholders in the second half of 2008.

Bank Ratings

Moody’s Investors Service this month lowered its outlook on Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac Bank to negative from stable. That was the first time Australia’s four biggest banks have had a negative outlook since the 1991 recession.

All four banks remain AA rated by the New York-based ratings agency. Moody’s revised the outlook for National Australia Bank Ltd. to negative in August.

The report also noted the U.S. government’s plan to support so-called public-private investment funds to purchase troubled loans and securities, has “received widespread market support.”

“Despite this, it could be some time before it is clear whether these initiatives have been sufficient to put the financial sector on the path to recovery,” the report added.

Lending

At the other end of their business, the banks insist they are not tightening lending to small business.

But small businesses say the banks are raising interest rates despite the official rate falling and shifting the goalposts when it comes to credit criteria for loans.

Early this month, Small Business Minister Craig Emerson convened an emergency summit to discuss the impasse with banks and small business groups, and established a small business complaints clearing house in his office to keep track of and help resolve complaints.

Venture capital funds are so depleted that the Federal Government stepped in last week with an $83 million rescue package to ease the plight for some start-ups.

Where to From Here

On the eve of the Rudd government’s first federal budget, they are preparing for the economy to contract by at least 1% next year, a blow out of the budget bottom line over the next 2 years and for the economy to dive into a recession.

Recent data collected by Treasury, is that business investment is plummeting, while net exports, retail sales and housing construction are doing reasonably well.

Our illustrious Prime Minister Rudd stated before his current world tour that it “was clear that the impact of a worsening economic global recession will make it virtually impossible for Australia to sustain a positive economic growth for the period ahead.”

Very dire comments from our leader Mr Rudd, however, these are cautionary measures for very cautionary times.

Firstly, lets clear up a few thoughts on what is considered a recession.

The most common theory is based on a 1975 New York Times article, which stated the rule of 'two successive quarterly declines in GDP' was considered a recession. This slowly evolved to what most consider today as a recession as the reduction of a country's GDP (or negative real economic growth) for at least two quarters.

However, in the United States the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in [the] economic activity spread across the country, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

Almost universally, academic economists, policy makers, and businesses defer to the determination by the NBER for the precise dating of a recession's onset and end.

Conclusion

Although we expect a recession in the first half of 2009, I do expect things to improve in Australia by late Qtr 3 or early Qtr 4 2009 as we see the US, Asia and hopefully Europe begin to see some further positive sentiment and rebuilding of the Childs confidence.

Our banks and companies are holding strong balance sheets and our Government is spending on infrastructure which will help create jobs. Retail trade and property prices are still holding steady and there is plentiful amounts of cash sitting on the sideline.

I am of the voice that the 2^nd half of 2009 will offer some great opportunities across a myriad of asset classes. That is to say, we will see below par pricing coming together with fresh cash investors to create low points of entry’s to otherwise steady opportunities.

Obviously some asset classes will perform better and earlier than others but if you are willing to hold investments for between 3 and 5 years then the returns will be worth while you holding.

So to put it simply, sit on your cash till Q3 09, look for educated opportunities in Q4 09 and Q1 10 and look for economies to begin to turn and improver by Q2 2010.

My article to begin in 2010 will be headlined… “Inflation, How to Tame that Beast”…

But untill then, hunt like a fox and manage like a hen.

Kind Regards,

Mathew Collett

C.E.O.

PRESIDIUM CAPITAL
Protect • Advise • Manage

The information contained in this article and any attachments is strictly confidential. Any information in this article is not considered to be predictions or advice and is not intended for any individuals to act on any of the information. If you have received this article in error please notify us immediately by return email and delete the document. Presidium accepts no liability for any loss or damage caused by this article or its attachments.

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	Progen Pharmaceuticals (ASX:PGL) - Thomson Reuters Insi... Progen Pharmaceuticals Limited (Progen) is a dual listed Australian (ASX:PGL & US OTC: PGLA) clinical stage oncology dru...
	Viralytics (ASX:VLA) - Thomson Reuters Insider The development of targeted cancer therapies using oncolytic viruses to detect, invade and destroy cancer cells. Oncolyt...
	Patrys Limited (ASX:PAB) - Thomson Reuters Insider Patrys develops natural human antibody-based treatments for cancer.
	Rox Resources (ASX:ROX) -Thomson Reuters Insider Rox owns the Myrtle project in the NT, just south of the McArthur River mine, where a resource of 43.6 million tonnes gr...
	EcoQuest (ASX:ECQ) - Thomson Reuters Insider After two years or extensive research, EcoQuest Limited is poised to commercialise its 93% biodegradable nappies and com...
	Minemakers (MAK) - Thomson Reuters Insider Minemakers Limited (ASX Code: MAK), since its inception in 2004 and listing in October 2006, has aimed to acquire major ...
	Vocus Communication Ltd (ASX:VOC) - Thomson Reuters Ins... Vocus Communications Ltd. (ASX:VOC) is a pioneering, newly ASX- listed, wholesale voice and data provider, backed by Inv...
	Because Group International Because Group International Ltd (Because Group) is a global digital media distribution company with operations in the US...
	Anteo Diagnostics - Thomson Reuters Insider Anteo has demonstrated further applications of the technology in several other large market segments such as clinical as...